Climate Change: Group Discussion Topic

Impact of Climate Change on India

◆The first ‘Assessment of Climate Change over Indian Region’ was released by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

◆According to the report tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, heat waves, floods and droughts have increased in India. The Projections are for the decade leading to the end of the 21st century.

Key findings

Temperature

◆Surface temperature over India has risen by 0.6-degree celsius per year during 1901-2018.

◆The Northern Region has warmed more than the Southern region of India, Where warming Has been mainly during winters.

◆By the end of the 21st century, the average temperature over India is projected to rise by 4.4-degree celsius.

Monsoon

◆During 1951-2015, annual rainfall over India showed a declining trend. The reduction ranged between 1-5 mm over central India, Kerala and the far Northeast region.

◆The coming decades are projected to witness a considerable rise in the mean, extreme and inter-annual variability of rainfall associated with the monsoon.

Droughts and Floods

●Since 1901, 22 droughts have been experienced by India during monsoon. In addition to an increase in the area under drought, frequency and severity too have increased during 1951-2016.

●Projections indicate an increase by one or two events per decade over Central and Northern India.

●Eastern India could face two more droughts per decade compared to what was experienced during 1976-2005, while the Southern Peninsula is projected to experience one or two droughts fewer.

Sea level

◆During 1993-2015, the sea level over the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal) rose by 3.3 mm per year, which is in tune with the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise.

◆By 2030, some 340 million coastal residents of the North Indian Ocean and its islands would be exposed to coastal hazards.

Tropical cyclones

●Before the 1950s, 94 severe cyclonic storms formed in the Bay of Bengal, a number that jumped to 140 post the 1950s. For those formed in the Arabian Sea, the number has risen from 29 to 44 in the same period.

●The number of extremely severe cyclonic storms formed in the Arabian Sea has increased in the last 20 years.

Himalaya snow cover

◆During the last seven decades, the Hindukush Himalayas have warmed at an average 0.2°C per decade, leading to a decline in snow cover and glaciers in the last four to five decades. The Karakoram Himalayas have reported an increase in snowfall during winter.

◆By the end of the century, the Hindukush Himalayas is projected to be warmer by 2.6-4.6°C.

Causes

●The main contributor to climate change is anthropogenic activities pushing up concentrations of greenhouse gases. This has led to a rise in temperature and atmospheric moisture content.

Effects of climate change

◆A higher concentration of water vapour, in turn, leads to intense rainfall during monsoon.

◆Heating leads to vaporisation, which is directly linked to decreasing soil moisture, resulting in droughts. This can lead to a reduction in food production and in the availability of potable water, the report says.

◆Rising sea levels would make India’s big cities vulnerable to erosion and damage to coastal projects, the report says.

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